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Growth momentum: who is speeding up, who is losing pace

The energy shock of 2022, the war in Ukraine and higher interest rates hit economies very unevenly. Each arrow runs from a country's average real growth in 2015–2019 to its average over the last three years.

0%2%4%6%8%10%Real GDP growth, % a year → BrazilBrazil: -0.5% → 3.0%United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates: 2.9% → 5.3%Hong KongHong Kong: 1.9% → 3.1%GreeceGreece: 1.1% → 2.1%AlbaniaAlbania: 3.0% → 4.0%MoroccoMorocco: 3.2% → 4.0%SingaporeSingapore: 3.1% → 3.9%CroatiaCroatia: 3.0% → 3.7%IndiaIndia: 6.7% → 7.3%North MacedoniaNorth Macedonia: 2.9% → 3.0%MexicoMexico: 1.6% → 1.7%United StatesUnited States: 2.6% → 2.6%SpainSpain: 2.8% → 2.9%CanadaCanada: 1.9% → 1.9%SerbiaSerbia: 3.2% → 3.2%IndonesiaIndonesia: 5.0% → 5.1%DenmarkDenmark: 2.4% → 2.3%PortugalPortugal: 2.5% → 2.4%South AfricaSouth Africa: 1.0% → 0.8%ItalyItaly: 1.0% → 0.7%MalaysiaMalaysia: 4.9% → 4.6%BulgariaBulgaria: 3.1% → 2.7%AustraliaAustralia: 2.5% → 2.1%JapanJapan: 0.9% → 0.6%FranceFrance: 1.5% → 1.2%BelgiumBelgium: 1.7% → 1.2%MaltaMalta: 7.6% → 6.9%SwitzerlandSwitzerland: 1.8% → 1.2%NorwayNorway: 1.7% → 1.0%United KingdomUnited Kingdom: 2.0% → 0.9%South KoreaSouth Korea: 3.0% → 1.5%ChinaChina: 6.7% → 5.1%NetherlandsNetherlands: 2.4% → 0.8%SlovakiaSlovakia: 3.3% → 1.6%LithuaniaLithuania: 3.9% → 2.2%SwedenSweden: 2.6% → 0.8%IsraelIsrael: 3.8% → 2.0%CyprusCyprus: 5.6% → 3.8%SloveniaSlovenia: 3.7% → 1.7%FinlandFinland: 1.8% → -0.3%GermanyGermany: 1.8% → -0.4%IcelandIceland: 3.9% → 1.7%LuxembourgLuxembourg: 2.6% → 0.4%AustriaAustria: 2.0% → -0.3%PolandPoland: 4.7% → 2.3%CzechiaCzechia: 3.8% → 1.3%LatviaLatvia: 2.9% → 0.4%New ZealandNew Zealand: 3.3% → 0.5%RomaniaRomania: 4.7% → 1.3%HungaryHungary: 4.2% → 0.1%EstoniaEstonia: 3.6% → -0.8%IrelandIreland: 9.7% → 4.1%
Grey dot: average 2015–2019. Arrow head: average of the last three years with data. Green arrows point to faster growth, red ones to slower.
Gaining pace: Brazil (-0.5% → 3.0%), United Arab Emirates (2.9% → 5.3%), Hong Kong (1.9% → 3.1%), Greece (1.1% → 2.1%) and Albania (3.0% → 4.0%). Losing it: Ireland (9.7% → 4.1%), Estonia (3.6% → -0.8%), Hungary (4.2% → 0.1%), Romania (4.7% → 1.3%) and New Zealand (3.3% → 0.5%).

Momentum is one of the six business-climate drivers: a slowing economy means weaker local demand and, often, rising costs that are not yet in the price lists. It does not say a place is cheap or expensive; read it next to labour costs and energy prices.

Source: World Bank WDI, real GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG), CC BY 4.0. Nestlyzer scores each measure 0–100 between the 5th and 95th percentile of the countries it covers. How the method works.